Group G has the feel of a group that looks manageable on paper until you actually sit down and think about it. Belgium should be the class of the field, but Iran, Egypt, and New Zealand each bring something real to the table — and in a 48-team World Cup where eight third-place finishers advance, every point carries extra weight.
The Favorites
Belgium is the easy answer here, and for good reason. This is a nation that has spent the better part of a decade as one of Europe's most talented footballing sides, peaking with a third-place finish at the 2018 World Cup in Russia — still the high-water mark for the so-called Golden Generation. That generation is aging now, and some of its most iconic names have either retired or are well past their peak, which adds a bittersweet dimension to Belgium's 2026 campaign. But even a transitional Belgian side carries serious technical quality and tactical sophistication. They press with purpose, build intelligently through midfield, and have the kind of top-flight European experience that simply dwarfs anything else in this group. The question is not whether Belgium is the best team here — it is whether they can stay focused and avoid the kind of complacency that has tripped up favorites in expanded World Cup formats.
Egypt slots in as a credible second-favorite. The Pharaohs are one of Africa's most historically decorated nations, with a record seven Africa Cup of Nations titles, and they have been building toward a consistent presence on the global stage. Their style tends to be organized and defensively compact, making them genuinely difficult to break down. They are not a team that will blow anyone away with attacking flair, but they know how to grind out results — and at a World Cup, that is a legitimate strategy.
Who Advances
Belgium should have enough quality to win this group, even accounting for the generational transition they are navigating. My pick is Belgium first, Egypt second. The Egyptians have the structure and the continental pedigree to edge out Iran over 90 minutes when it matters most. That said, this is far from a lock. Iran is a well-coached, tactically disciplined side that has shown at recent World Cups they can frustrate bigger nations and steal points. If Egypt has an off day, Iran is right there to take advantage.
As for the third-place route — Iran would be my pick to make a run at one of the eight best third-place spots if they fall short of automatic qualification. New Zealand, realistically, is going to need a near-perfect tournament to advance, but the expanded format means even they cannot be completely counted out of a third-place scenario.
Dark Horse
Iran is the team I'd keep an eye on. They have quietly become one of Asia's most consistent World Cup qualifiers and have shown, most notably at Qatar 2022, that they are capable of competing against quality opposition even when the scoreline does not always reflect it. They are tactically cohesive, hard to play through, and capable of hitting on the counter. In a group where margins will be tight, Iran's ability to stay organized and make opponents work for every chance could translate into a famous result.
Key Players to Watch
On the Belgian side, the attacking threat — however it is configured by 2026 — will be the engine of everything they do. Belgium has consistently produced forwards who operate at the highest club level in Europe, and whoever carries that responsibility into this tournament will be the player to watch. For Egypt, their creative threat in the final third will be central to their chances; the Pharaohs have historically leaned on individual brilliance to unlock stubborn defenses, and that dynamic should hold here. Iran's defensive organization is a collective effort more than an individual one, but their ability to transition quickly means their forward runners will be dangerous in space. New Zealand, competing at this level as significant underdogs, will need their most experienced players to lead by example and keep the group stage from becoming a lesson in the gap between confederations.
Prediction
This is purely my read, but here is how I see Group G finishing:
- Belgium — Quality wins out, even if it is not always pretty.
- Egypt — Disciplined enough to hold off Iran across three games.
- Iran — Competitive throughout; a genuine shot at a third-place berth.
- New Zealand — Proud to be here, but the gap in quality is too wide to overcome.
Follow Group G live — standings, fixtures, and the knockout bracket as it fills in — on our World Cup 2026 hub, and get the full tournament breakdown in our complete guide.